Rookie quarterbacks in fantasy football are tough to gauge, just like in the real NFL. There were 6 quarterbacks taken in the first round this year, so who is in line for success?
We will be rating those 6 first round quarterbacks on size, athleticism, passing/running production, and opportunity. This all complies to create our NPS Grade from 0-10.
*For reference, Joe Burrow was a 9.17 NPS Grade coming out of college*
6. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
NPS Grade: 7.92
NFL Comp: Derek Carr
Penix lit up the NCAA last year for the high-flying Huskies of Washington. He was drafted into a situation where the Falcons brought in a proven starter in Kirk Cousins. He has the size and arm talent but is not the most effective runner. In the right offense, he will be a mid-tier quarterback at best. I don’t see him ever being in the elite category, topping out in the 12-15 range in rankings in the NFL.
Advice: If he takes over for Cousins due to production or injury, he could come in and be a serviceable QB2 this year. Even if that happens, not a player to draft or even start in 1 QB leagues.
5. Drake May, Patriots
NPS Grade: 8.00
NFL Comp: Justin Herbert
A talented player with tremendous upside. He comes from UNC with great passing and rushing production. The question is: Will the Patriots have an offense that supports these talents? I don’t believe this is the year that Maye should be in lineups. Similar to Herbert, if he can tap into the athletic profile and prolific arm talent, he can be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL.
Advice: He will be a low end QB2 throughout the season. Expect inconsistent play, with moments of wow. If you’re counting on him to carry your team this season, you have problems.
4. Bo Nix, Broncos
NPS Grade: 8.64
NFL Comp: Deshaun Watson
Bo Nix improved his draft status in the NFL by moving to Oregon his junior year. He put up great numbers and is very close to the ideal size and speed of our model quarterback. He’s currently in a competition for the starting position in Denver. I expect him to win this competition and be int he mix as a QB2 this season. He has major rushing upside which is huge in fantasy. His passing numbers won’t be great enough to vault him into QB1 territory though.
Advice: If he wins the QB battle, he’ll be a good QB2 throughout the season due to his rushing upside. Take a late flier on him if you have enough roster spots.
3. Jayden Daniels, Commanders
NPS Grade: 8.84
NFL Comp: Jalen Hurts
Daniels is the starter. That’s a huge plus. The Heisman Trophy winner has the weapons around him in DC and will need to come out slinging the ball. Expect the Commanders to be playing from behind a lot, opening up an opportunity for Daniels to sling it. Expect his talents to be on full display as he grows throughout the season to become a good quarterback.
Advice: Daniels is a QB2 with QB1 upside. He’ll need to limit mistakes and use his athleticism to run the ball often to hit his ceiling.
2. JJ McCarthy, Vikings
NPS Grade: 9.07
NFL Comp: Trevor Lawrence
McCarthy should supplant Sam Darnold by mid-season. His rating is boosted by his ideal size, accuracy, and ability to run effectively. The Vikings are built for a quarterback like McCarthy to thrive. With a strong offensive line and elite weapons, McCarthy can come in confident to make the throws needed and bring a new dynamic to the team that Cousins didn’t. Once he wins the role he’ll be a high end QB2.
Advice: Late season stash in 2 QB leagues with QB1 upside if he utilizes his running abilities.
1. Caleb Williams, Bears
NPS Grade: 9.14
NFL Comp: Joe Burrow
No surprise here. Williams has the production every scout looks for in college. He’s coming into a revamped Bears offense who has put their full trust in him to lead the way. With arguably the best receiving core in the league, Williams has the chance to come in and flourish from day 1. I don’t think there is a wait and see with Williams, you’ll know early on that he’s the truth.
Advice: Williams has the attributes and the talent around him to be a QB1. If the Bears can figure out a way to protect him, he’ll be a QB1 this year.
Comment your thoughts below!