I added in an adjustment for weather conditions to my projections!
I hope you’re finding it useful as well and this is a thread you can discuss kickers.
HOW IT WORKS
The projections are done by multiplying the team’s kicker fantasy points per game by a weighted average of stats for the defense the kicker is going against. You’ll find that these projections have a wider range of points than the big sites.
*WEATHER is now included in the projections*. Please know that this is Tuesday, and weather isn’t 100% accurate for the games until day of. I will try to update it before the games.
The opponent stats used for the projections are:
- Points Allowed Per Game
- Kicker Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
- Extra Points Attempts Per Game
- Field Goals Attempts Per Game
- Red Zone TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)
NOTES:
Week 13 byes: NONE
Jason Sanders, MIA – with Tua he averages 11.3 ppg. My data uses the whole season as a basis, so while he’s lower, he’ll continue to climb with Tua back. Singling out specific quarterback starts for each team is too much time for me to put into this fun ranking system. Maybe sometime down the line.
Cameron Dicker, LAC – People have been riding Dicker the whole season. This is his week! He’s been playing great and has a top 4 matchup in a dome this week. Expect another top showing!
Wil Lutz, DEN: After a great week last week, expect him to fall back to the middle of the pack in a tough matchup against the Browns.
Austin Seibert, WAS: Tough week for Seibert coming off injury. He still managed 9 points, keeping him at 1st in PPG among active kickers. I’d expect him to rebound and continue his point scoring.
John Parker Romo, MIN: After a blip in week 11, he bounced back to 13 points in week 12. The Vikings are feeding opportunities to their kickers, and the Cardinals are a slightly positive matchup in a dome.
Brandon Aubrey, DAL: Fact: Aubrey is a great kicker. The opportunities and execution by the Cowboys have been inconsistent all year. They play the Giants at home in a dome. They should destroy them, but likely stay inconsistent on offense, forcing more field goal attempts.
Matchup Rank: 1=best, 32=worst
| Rank | Player (Team) | Week 13 Opponent | Matchup Rating | Stadium Type | Projected Points | ROST % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Dicker (LAC) | Atlanta | 4 | Dome | 13.52 | 67.90% |
| 2 | John Parker Romo (MIN) | Arizona | 11 | Dome | 12.31 | 3.90% |
| 3 | Austin Seibert (WAS) | Tennessee | 16 | Outdoor | 12.24 | 50.00% |
| 4 | Brandon Aubrey (DAL) | NY Giants | 15 | Dome | 11.97 | 92.00% |
| 5 | Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Jacksonville | 13 | Outdoor | 11.68 | 91.40% |
| 6 | Chase McLaughlin (TB) | Carolina | 3 | Outdoor | 10.90 | 47.70% |
| 7 | Chris Boswell (PIT) | Cincinnati | 20 | Outdoor | 10.61 | 57.90% |
| 8 | Jake Bates (DET) | Chicago | 14 | Dome | 10.49 | 70.60% |
| 9 | Anders Carlson (NYJ) | Seattle | 22 | Outdoor | 10.31 | 1.00% |
| 10 | Blake Grupe (NO) | LA Rams | 10 | Dome | 9.91 | 7.10% |
| 11 | Brandon McManus (GB) | Miami | 2 | Outdoor | 9.40 | 5.80% |
| 12 | Jake Elliott (PHI) | Baltimore | 5 | Outdoor | 9.26 | 74.30% |
| 13 | Wil Lutz (DEN) | Cleveland | 18 | Outdoor | 9.18 | 19.60% |
| 14 | Joshua Karty (LAR) | New Orleans | 6 | Dome | 8.82 | 4.70% |
| 15 | Jason Myers (SEA) | NY Jets | 8 | Outdoor | 8.38 | 14.00% |
| 16 | Tyler Bass (BUF) | San Francisco | 21 | Outdoor | 8.02 | 56.10% |
| 17 | Matt Gay (IND) | New England | 19 | Outdoor | 7.85 | 14.60% |
| 18 | Eddy Pineiro (CAR) | Tampa Bay | 7 | Outdoor | 7.82 | 1.60% |
| 19 | Cairo Santos (CHI) | Detroit | 17 | Dome | 7.64 | 14.00% |
| 20 | Spencer Shrader (KC) | Las Vegas | 1 | Outdoor | 7.59 | 32.40% |
| 21 | Joey Slye (NE) | Indianapolis | 12 | Outdoor | 7.37 | 1.50% |
| 22 | Daniel Carlson (LV) | Kansas City | 25 | Outdoor | 6.83 | 5.20% |
| 23 | Justin Tucker (BAL) | Philadelphia | 24 | Outdoor | 6.79 | 96.30% |
| 24 | Jason Sanders (MIA) | Green Bay | 30 | Outdoor | 6.57 | 51.60% |
| 25 | Younghoe Koo (ATL) | LA Chargers | 27 | Dome | 6.42 | 72.80% |
| 26 | Jake Moody (SF) | Buffalo | 28 | Outdoor | 6.25 | 61.80% |
| 27 | Evan McPherson (CIN) | Pittsburgh | 31 | Outdoor | 5.56 | 56.80% |
| 28 | Nick Folk (TEN) | Washington | 29 | Outdoor | 5.33 | 1.80% |
| 29 | Cam Little (JAC) | Houston | 26 | Outdoor | 5.21 | 1.50% |
| 30 | Dustin Hopkins (CLE) | Denver | 23 | Outdoor | 4.95 | 7.60% |
| 31 | Chad Ryland (ARI) | Minnesota | 32 | Dome | 4.82 | 7.80% |
| 32 | Graham Gano (NYG) | Dallas | 9 | Dome | 3.62 | 0.40% |