I hope you’re finding it useful as well and this is a thread you can discuss kickers.
HOW IT WORKS
The projections are done by multiplying the team’s kicker fantasy points per game by a weighted average of stats for the defense the kicker is going against. You’ll find that these projections have a wider range of points than the big sites.
WEATHER IS NOT factored into the projections. Just remember wind over 15 mph, extreme cold, rain, or a combo of wind and rain, can affect kicking totals negatively. *I’ve added a column to show if the kicker is playing in a dome or outdoor. *
Metrics used for the opponent defense are:
- Points Allowed Per Game
- Kicker Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
- Extra Points Attempts Per Game
- Field Goals Attempts Per Game
- Red Zone TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)
NOTES:
I’ve decided to average out the team’s kicker’s PPG for projections. This comes after the many kicker changes, injuries, etc. The individual player performance is still factored in, but I feel this helps with fill ins and injuries moving forward.
Week 12 byes: Koo, ATL; Bass, BUF; McPherson, CIN; Little, JAX; Grupe, NO; A. Carlson, NYJ
Wil Lutz, DEN: Broncos are playing well and have a great matchup in a dome. Could be a filler this week.
Jake Bates, DET: The Lions continue to score a lot of points, and he’s up to 8th in PPG among active kickers. A lot of points from extra points though, less from FGs.
Justin Tucker, BAL: It’s over. There are better options out there.
Matchup Rank: 1=best, 32=worst
| Rank | Player | Week 12 Opponent | Matchup Rank | Stadium | Projected Points | ROST % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Seibert (WAS) Q | Dallas | 8 | Outdoor | 13.13 | 36.60% |
| 2 | Chris Boswell (PIT) | Cleveland | 14 | Outdoor | 12.80 | 56.80% |
| 3 | Cameron Dicker (LAC) | Baltimore | 5 | Dome | 12.37 | 65.00% |
| 4 | Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Tennessee | 12 | Dome | 11.72 | 91.40% |
| 5 | Jake Bates (DET) | Indianapolis | 6 | Dome | 11.25 | 65.60% |
| 6 | Wil Lutz (DEN) | Las Vegas | 2 | Dome | 11.18 | 10.60% |
| 7 | Spencer Shrader (KC) | Carolina | 4 | Outdoor | 10.76 | 7.10% |
| 8 | John Parker Romo (MIN) | Chicago | 10 | Outdoor | 10.60 | 4.80% |
| 9 | Chase McLaughlin (TB) | NY Giants | 11 | Outdoor | 10.01 | 25.60% |
| 10 | Joey Slye (NE) | Miami | 1 | Outdoor | 9.94 | 0.90% |
| 11 | Jason Myers (SEA) | Arizona | 7 | Outdoor | 9.36 | 5.70% |
| 12 | Matt Gay (IND) | Detroit | 13 | Dome | 8.78 | 12.10% |
| 13 | Jason Sanders (MIA) | New England | 15 | Outdoor | 8.47 | 39.10% |
| 14 | Jake Moody (SF) | Green Bay | 24 | Outdoor | 8.37 | 63.10% |
| 15 | Jake Elliott (PHI) | LA Rams | 9 | Dome | 8.24 | 74.50% |
| 16 | Graham Gano (NYG) | Tampa Bay | 3 | Outdoor | 8.17 | 0.20% |
| 17 | Chad Ryland (ARI) | Seattle | 16 | Outdoor | 7.62 | 4.50% |
| 18 | Brandon Aubrey (DAL) | Washington | 25 | Outdoor | 7.53 | 92.90% |
| 19 | Brandon McManus (GB) | San Francisco | 17 | Outdoor | 7.46 | 6.40% |
| 20 | Justin Tucker (BAL) | LA Chargers | 20 | Dome | 6.91 | 98.30% |
| 21 | Joshua Karty (LAR) | Philadelphia | 18 | Dome | 6.66 | 4.70% |
| 22 | Daniel Carlson (LV) | Denver | 19 | Dome | 6.63 | 4.70% |
| 23 | Nick Folk (TEN) | Houston | 23 | Dome | 5.48 | 1.70% |
| 24 | Dustin Hopkins (CLE) | Pittsburgh | 22 | Outdoor | 4.94 | 8.00% |
| 25 | Eddy Pineiro (CAR) | Kansas City | 21 | Outdoor | 4.69 | 1.50% |
| 26 | Cairo Santos (CHI) | Minnesota | 26 | Outdoor | 4.42 | 14.30% |
Sources: TeamRankings.com and FantasyPros.com