This is my 5th week of kicker projections, and it’s been fun so far (for a stats nerd). I hope you’re finding it useful as well and this is a thread you can discuss kickers.
HOW IT WORKS
The projections are done by multiplying the kickers fantasy points per game by a weighted average of stats for the defense the kicker is going against. You’ll find that these projections have a wider range of points than the big sites.
WEATHER IS NOT factored into the projections. Just remember wind over 15 mph, extreme cold, rain, or a combo of wind and rain, can affect kicking totals negatively. *I’ve added a column to show if the kicker is playing in a dome or not.*
Metrics used for the opponent defense are:
- Points Allowed Per Game
- Kicker Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
- Extra Points Attempts Per Game
- Field Goals Attempts Per Game
- Red Zone TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)
NOTES:
Week 10 Byes: Brandon McManus, GB; Daniel Carlson, LV; Dustin Hopkins, CLE; Jason Myers, SEA
Younghoe Koo, ATL – I found it hard to believe he averaged out to #2 this week. I did a double check of my numbers, as well as checked projections on other sites like ESPN (8th) and FantasyPros (3rd). He scored 20 points last time against the Saints. This could be the last week worth hanging onto him though. I’d have a hard time trusting him due to his recent performance.
Jake Moody, SF – If he doesn’t end up playing this week, I’ll update the projections.
Chris Boswell, PIT – Washington’s defense has been a tougher matchup for kickers. While his appeal is great long term, this might be a ‘down’ week for him.
Brandon Aubrey, DAL – While Dak is out for the time being, the Cowboys may have trouble scoring. But they could just have trouble scoring touchdowns. If they get into range for Aubrey, he may be their best bet at putting points on the board.
| Rank | Player | Week 10 Opponent | Matchup Rating | Stadium | Projected Points | ROST % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Moody (SF) | Tampa Bay | 7 | Outdoor | 13.74 | 46.80% |
| 2 | Younghoe Koo (ATL) | New Orleans | 1 | Dome | 12.74 | 87.20% |
| 3 | Blake Grupe (NO) | Atlanta | 4 | Dome | 11.31 | 12.00% |
| 4 | Brandon Aubrey (DAL) | Philadelphia | 18 | Outdoor | 11.19 | 95.80% |
| 5 | Chad Ryland (ARI) | NY Jets | 7 | Outdoor | 11.05 | 1.30% |
| 6 | Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU) | Detroit | 20 | Dome | 10.80 | 91.20% |
| 7 | Cameron Dicker (LAC) | Tennessee | 6 | Outdoor | 10.80 | 56.40% |
| 8 | Austin Seibert (WAS) | Pittsburgh | 28 | Outdoor | 10.27 | 77.10% |
| 9 | Tyler Bass (BUF) | Indianapolis | 10 | Dome | 9.93 | 54.20% |
| 10 | Will Reichard (MIN) | Jacksonville | 11 | Outdoor | 9.86 | 28.90% |
| 11 | Evan McPherson (CIN) | Baltimore | 9 | Outdoor | 9.39 | 76.60% |
| 12 | Justin Tucker (BAL) | Cincinnati | 16 | Outdoor | 8.97 | 98.30% |
| 13 | Cairo Santos (CHI) | New England | 13 | Outdoor | 8.73 | 13.70% |
| 14 | Joshua Karty (LAR) | Miami | 5 | Outdoor | 8.43 | 2.40% |
| 15 | Jake Elliott (PHI) | Dallas | 2 | Dome | 8.12 | 73.00% |
| 16 | Chris Boswell (PIT) | Washington | 25 | Outdoor | 8.08 | 40.40% |
| 17 | Jason Sanders (MIA) | LA Rams | 22 | Dome | 7.95 | 15.90% |
| 18 | Chase McLaughlin (TB) | San Francisco | 21 | Outdoor | 7.61 | 44.60% |
| 19 | Wil Lutz (DEN) | Kansas City | 23 | Outdoor | 7.56 | 14.80% |
| 20 | Joey Slye (NE) | Chicago | 15 | Outdoor | 7.44 | 0.90% |
| 21 | Harrison Butker (KC) | Denver | 27 | Outdoor | 6.98 | 92.80% |
| 22 | Jake Bates (DET) | Houston | 19 | Dome | 6.54 | 45.70% |
| 23 | Eddy Pineiro (CAR) | NY Giants | 14 | Outdoor | 6.42 | 1.90% |
| 24 | Matt Gay (IND) | Buffalo | 24 | Outdoor | 6.30 | 11.90% |
| 25 | Nick Folk (TEN) | LA Chargers | 17 | Dome | 5.20 | 1.80% |
| 26 | Jude McAtamney (NYG) | Carolina | 2 | Outdoor | 4.96 | 0.00% |
| 27 | Cam Little (JAC) | Minnesota | 26 | Dome | 4.68 | 2.30% |
| 28 | Spencer Shrader (NYJ) | Arizona | 12 | Dome | 3.66 | 0.00% |