Over the years, I’ve developed a betting model that predicts the outcomes of NCAA Basketball games (which will be featured on this site very soon!). Building on that success, I’ve now developed a similar model for NFL games. Using data from this year’s games, I’m able to project point totals and spread picks for every matchup.
Since this is the first year of my NFL betting model, there will be adjustments and improvements as the season progresses. I’m looking forward to seeing how this model performs in Year One, and I hope it proves helpful to everyone following along. I will update the overall standings weekly.
I ran the model for Week 4, and here are the current results:
- Over/Under Record: 56.24% (9 Wins – 7 Losses – 0 Pushes)
- Spread Record: 46.67% (6 Wins – 7 Losses – 2 Pushes)
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Atlanta -1.5
- Spread Pick: Atlanta
NY Jets @ Minnesota
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Minnesota -2.5
- Spread Pick: Minnesota
Carolina @ Chicago
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Chicago -4
- Spread Pick: Chicago
Baltimore @ Cincinnati
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Baltimore -2.5
- Spread Pick: Cincinatti
Miami @ New England
- Over/Under: 35.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: New England -1.5
- Spread Pick: New England
Cleveland @ Washington
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Washington -3
- Spread Pick: Washington
Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Jacksonville -3
- Spread Pick: Indianapolis
Buffalo @ Houston
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Houston -1.5
- Spread Pick: Buffalo
Las Vegas @ Denver
- Over/Under: 36.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Denver -3
- Spread Pick: Denver
Arizona @ San Francisco
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: San Francisco -7.5
- Spread Pick: San Francisco
Green Bay @ LA Rams
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Green Bay -3.5
- Spread Pick: LA Rams
NY Giants @ Seattle
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Seattle -6.5
- Spread Pick: Seattle
Dallas @ Pittsburgh
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Pittsburgh -2.5
- Spread Pick: Pittsburgh
New Orleans @ Kansas City
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Kansas City -5
- Spread Pick: New Orleans