I started this as a fun way to dive into kicker scoring and find a way to project outcomes. It’s been a fun way to spend my Tuesday evening to fill the no football void!
A common misconception is to find the kicker on the team who scores the most points. I believe there’s more to it than that.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the top 5 scoring teams and where their kicker (active) ranks in fantasy points per game
- Detroit –> Kicker PPG Rank: 7
- Baltimore –> Kicker PPG Rank: 12
- Buffalo –> Kicker PPG Rank: 9
- Washington –> Kicker PPG Rank: 3
- Tampa Bay –> Kicker PPG Rank: 9
Now, let’s look at the top 5 kickers (active) in PPG and compare it to their team’s PPG
- Austin Seibert –> Team PPG Rank: 4
- Chris Boswell –> Team PPG Rank: 15
- Anders Carlson –> Team PPG Rank: 8
- Ka’imi Fairbairn –> Team PPG Rank: 14
- Brandon Aubrey –> Team PPG Rank: 24
Notes
I’m not sure if more kickers are getting hurt/replaced, or if I’m just paying attention to it more. This has caused difficulty in projections. I’ve tried to balance it by weighing in TEAMS kicker ppg to help. This helps with players playing for multiple teams where kicking opportunities are different.
Boswell, Fairbairn, Siebert – these 3 should be top 3 ROS. No need to make a move if you have them. Siebert being Questionable AND having a bye yet to come is tough though.
Fairbairn has been Mr. Consistency this season. He’s scored 9 or more points in 9 of the 11 weeks this season with outliers in week 3 and 4 (1pt and 6pts).
Matt Gay, IND – he’s been quietly putting up good numbers the last 8 weeks, not scoring below 8 points in any week, averaging 10pts per game over that time.
Jason Sanders, MIA – over the last 4 weeks his point totals have been 11, 9, 15, 11. Tua seems to help him more than Waddle (coming from a Waddle drafter, ouch)
ROS Rankings
I use the same stats I use for weekly projections to create these ranks. I create an adjustment % based on rankings of the remaining defenses the kicker is facing and do a weighted average to project their ROS Rank.
- Kicker Individual Fantasy Points Per Game
- Opposing Defense Points Allowed Per Game
- Opposing Defense Kicker Fantasy Points Against Per Game
- Opposing Defense Extra Points Attempts Per Game
- Opposing Defense Field Goals Attempts Per Game
- Opposing Defense Red Zone TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)
Notes
Byes: Players with * have had their bye weeks.
Week 12 byes: Koo, ATL; Bass, BUF; McPherson, CIN; Little, JAX; Grupe, NO; A. Carlson, NYJ
Drops**:** Justin Tucker, BAL – while his team has confidence in him, I do not. He continues to prove he’s not the same as years past. Jake Elliott, PHI – he continues to perform in the bottom
Adds: Chase McLaughlin, TB – coming off bye he looks to available in most leagues. With a #1 ranked ROS schedule, he should be on rosters and starting. Austin Seibert, WAS – if he is back this week you should add him. He does have a week 14 bye, though.
Keep An Eye On: Anders Carlson, NYJ. He proved efficient in every game he’s played, for both SF and NY. He’s on bye this week, so likely on waivers and available. Not a priority, but something to consider if you’re in need.
SOS ranking: 1=best, 32=worst
Playoff SOS: Weeks 15-17; 1=best, 32=worst
| ROS Rank | Player | Team | SOS | Playoff SOS | Rost % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Seibert | Washington | 12 | 7 | 36.60% |
| 2 | *Chris Boswell | Pittsburgh | 15 | 19 | 56.80% |
| 3 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | Houston | 21 | 8 | 91.40% |
| 4 | *Jake Moody | San Francisco | 13 | 5 | 63.10% |
| 5 | *Brandon Aubrey | Dallas | 27 | 6 | 92.90% |
| 6 | *Cameron Dicker | LA Chargers | 7 | 15 | 65.00% |
| 7 | *Chase McLaughlin | Tampa Bay | 1 | 11 | 25.60% |
| 8 | *John Parker Romo | Minnesota | 5 | 22 | 4.80% |
| 9 | Anders Carlson | NY Jets | 3 | 17 | 1.40% |
| 10 | *Jake Bates | Detroit | 25 | 25 | 65.60% |
| 11 | Tyler Bass | Buffalo | 20 | 13 | 67.40% |
| 12 | Younghoe Koo | Atlanta | 24 | 14 | 82.30% |
| 13 | *Jason Sanders | Miami | 16 | 28 | 39.10% |
| 14 | Matt Gay | Indianapolis | 14 | 18 | 12.10% |
| 15 | Wil Lutz | Denver | 22 | 20 | 10.60% |
| 16 | *Chad Ryland | Arizona | 28 | 9 | 4.50% |
| 17 | Justin Tucker | Baltimore | 31 | 27 | 98.30% |
| 18 | Blake Grupe | New Orleans | 10 | 24 | 12.90% |
| 19 | *Daniel Carlson | Las Vegas | 23 | 3 | 4.70% |
| 20 | *Joshua Karty | LA Rams | 18 | 10 | 4.70% |
| 21 | Evan McPherson | Cincinnati | 26 | 21 | 78.30% |
| 22 | *Brandon McManus | Green Bay | 4 | 23 | 6.40% |
| 23 | *Jason Myers | Seattle | 9 | 32 | 5.70% |
| 24 | *Jake Elliott | Philadelphia | 6 | 29 | 74.50% |
| 25 | *Graham Gano | NY Giants | 2 | 1 | 0.20% |
| 26 | Joey Slye | New England | 17 | 26 | 0.90% |
| 27 | *Eddy Pineiro | Carolina | 8 | 2 | 1.50% |
| 28 | Cam Little | Jacksonville | 11 | 4 | 1.90% |
| 29 | *Spencer Shrader | Kansas City | 19 | 30 | 7.10% |
| 30 | *Nick Folk | Tennessee | 30 | 12 | 1.70% |
| 31 | *Cairo Santos | Chicago | 32 | 31 | 14.30% |
| 32 | *Dustin Hopkins | Cleveland | 29 | 16 | 8.00% |
Kicker POWER RANKINGS
This is essentially performance on the season so far. A look back at kicker performance.
These are the stats that go into these rankings. I’ve added in player specific XP% and FG% this week (typically just used team versions of this). With some kickers being injured and players losing their jobs, I had to find a way to include this. It also balances out the rank a bit more as we don’t want a previous kicker’s stats to dramatically affect the new kickers ranks.
- Fantasy PPG
- Player 50+ Field Goal Makes
- Player FG%
- Player XP%
- Team FG Attempts
- Team XP Attempts
- Team Kicking Points
- Team Points Per Field Goal Attempt
- Team Points Per Game
- RZ TD% (looking for low % to increase FG attempts)
- RZ Attempts
Notes:
Riser: Matt Gay, IND (+6)
Faller: John Parker Romo, MIN (-9)
Notable Riser: Spencer Shrader, KC (+5)
| Power Rank | Player | Team | Opportunity Rank | Player Performance Rank | Overall | Roster % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Boswell | PIT | 11.7 | 2.5 | 7.1 | 56.80% |
| 2 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | 10.6 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 91.40% |
| 3 | Austin Seibert | WAS | 7.6 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 36.60% |
| 4 | Jake Moody | San F | 7.0 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 63.10% |
| 5 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | 16.3 | 5.8 | 11.0 | 92.90% |
| 6 | Jake Bates | DET | 14.3 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 65.60% |
| 7 | Spencer Shrader | KC | 13.1 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 7.10% |
| 8 | Brandon McManus | GB | 8.0 | 17.0 | 12.5 | 6.40% |
| 9 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | 13.7 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 82.30% |
| 10 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | 15.7 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 25.60% |
| 11 | Matt Gay | IND | 15.9 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 12.10% |
| 12 | Jason Sanders | MIA | 17.7 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 39.10% |
| 13 | Justin Tucker | BAL | 9.6 | 18.5 | 14.0 | 98.30% |
| 14 | Tyler Bass | BUF | 9.9 | 18.8 | 14.3 | 67.40% |
| 15 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | 15.1 | 14.0 | 14.6 | 65.00% |
| 16 | John Parker Romo | MIN | 12.3 | 17.3 | 14.8 | 4.80% |
| 17 | Wil Lutz | DEN | 16.1 | 13.5 | 14.8 | 10.60% |
| 18 | Chad Ryland | ARI | 19.0 | 12.5 | 15.8 | 4.50% |
| 19 | Daniel Carlson | LV | 21.3 | 11.3 | 16.3 | 4.70% |
| 20 | Blake Grupe | NO | 18.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 12.90% |
| 21 | Nick Folk | TEN | 22.7 | 12.5 | 17.6 | 1.70% |
| 22 | Cam Little | JAC | 23.0 | 12.5 | 17.8 | 1.90% |
| 23 | Evan McPherson | CIN | 14.6 | 21.5 | 18.0 | 78.30% |
| 24 | Joshua Karty | LAR | 14.1 | 22.3 | 18.2 | 4.70% |
| 25 | Anders Carlson | NYJ | 18.3 | 19.0 | 18.6 | 1.40% |
| 26 | Jason Myers | SEA | 18.6 | 18.8 | 18.7 | 5.70% |
| 27 | Joey Slye | NE | 19.3 | 19.5 | 19.4 | 0.90% |
| 28 | Jake Elliott | PHI | 12.7 | 26.3 | 19.5 | 74.50% |
| 29 | Graham Gano | NYG | 19.1 | 21.0 | 20.1 | 0.20% |
| 30 | Cairo Santos | CHI | 23.9 | 18.8 | 21.3 | 14.30% |
| 31 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | 28.0 | 17.3 | 22.6 | 1.50% |
| 32 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | 21.1 | 25.5 | 23.3 | 8.00% |
Sources: TeamRankings.com and FantasyPros.com