I’m not sure if I just didn’t pay attention to it, but this season seems to be the most injuries and kicker changes I’ve ever seen.
THESE ARE NOT WEEK 11 Rankings, find them linked below.
Having fun with these, so I’m going to continue them. If you have any questions, feel free to ask me or the community. Hoping this continues to provide a landing spot for anyone wanting to discuss kickers!
Find Week 11 Projections HERE: https://welchanalytics.com/week-11-kicker-rankings-metric-based-projections/
Notes
Romo, MIN – MIN is 6th in opportunity rank so far this season. They will continue to kick field goals when given the chance. If he can be accurate, he’s a good play. In a small sample size (1 week) he’s 10th in player performance for the season.
Moody, SF – 3 missed field goals is rough. 6 field goal attempts are great. SF is 2nd in opportunity rank behind Washington. We will see if they choose to bypass field goals or continue to trust him moving forward. In his career he’s 37-45 (82.2%).
Aubery, DAL – The injury to Dak looks to be concerning. He’ll continue to make his opportunities, ranking 2nd in player performance, but with a 30th ranked SOS, he could continue to fall.
Fairbairn, HOU – Fairbairn is 3rd in player performance and 9th in opportunity. He leads the league in 50+ field goals and total field goal attempts. He’s missed 5 field goals, which dings him a bit. Not enough though, he should be a top 3 kicker ROS.
Koo, ATL – I had Koo on my drop list last week. It seems something is off with him. He came into the season as one of the most accurate kickers of all time. This season, he ranks 32nd in FG%. While the opportunities help bring him up in the rankings, I’d say he’s a safe drop.
ROS Rankings
I use the same stats I use for weekly projections to create these ranks. I create an adjustment % based on rankings of the remaining defenses the kicker is facing and do a weighted average to project their ROS Rank.
- Kicker Individual Fantasy Points Per Game
- Opposing Defense Points Allowed Per Game
- Opposing Defense Kicker Fantasy Points Against Per Game
- Opposing Defense Extra Points Attempts Per Game
- Opposing Defense Field Goals Attempts Per Game
- Opposing Defense Red Zone TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)
Notes
Byes: Players with * have had their bye weeks.
Week 11 byes: Chad Ryland, ARI; Eddie Pineiro, CAR; Graham Gano, NYG; Chase McLaughlin, TB
Drop: Younghoe Koo, ATL (2nd week in a row). Missing 3 field goals in a game just puts the icing on top.
Add: John Parker Romo, MIN – the Vikings continue produce opportunities. He also has a top 4 ROS schedule.
Keep An Eye On: The Washington Kicker. They play on Thursday so if Seibert is out, Zane Gonzalez will kick again.
SOS ranking: 1=best, 32=worst
Playoff SOS: Weeks 15-17; 1=best, 32=worst
| ROS Rank | Player | Team | SOS | Playoff SOS | Rost % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | *Chris Boswell | Pittsburgh | 24 | 17 | 54.30% |
| 2 | Austin Seibert | Washington | 11 | 1 | 45.40% |
| 3 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | Houston | 18 | 9 | 90.80% |
| 4 | *John Parker Romo | Minnesota | 4 | 20 | 1.30% |
| 5 | *Brandon Aubrey | Dallas | 30 | 7 | 94.50% |
| 6 | *Jake Moody | San Francisco | 9 | 6 | 60.50% |
| 7 | Chase McLaughlin | Tampa Bay | 3 | 15 | 45.30% |
| 8 | *Cameron Dicker | LA Chargers | 14 | 12 | 59.80% |
| 9 | *Jake Bates | Detroit | 17 | 21 | 50.80% |
| 10 | Younghoe Koo | Atlanta | 26 | 14 | 86.40% |
| 11 | Tyler Bass | Buffalo | 21 | 8 | 60.50% |
| 12 | Chad Ryland | Arizona | 28 | 11 | 5.90% |
| 13 | Blake Grupe | New Orleans | 20 | 29 | 11.90% |
| 14 | Wil Lutz | Denver | 13 | 25 | 11.00% |
| 15 | *Jason Sanders | Miami | 12 | 32 | 25.00% |
| 16 | *Harrison Butker | Kansas City | 25 | 31 | 92.60% |
| 17 | *Daniel Carlson | Las Vegas | 16 | 2 | 4.60% |
| 18 | *Brandon McManus | Green Bay | 1 | 19 | 3.50% |
| 19 | Justin Tucker | Baltimore | 29 | 26 | 98.60% |
| 20 | Matt Gay | Indianapolis | 8 | 16 | 12.20% |
| 21 | Eddy Pineiro | Carolina | 6 | 4 | 1.90% |
| 22 | *Joshua Karty | LA Rams | 7 | 10 | 4.30% |
| 23 | *Jake Elliott | Philadelphia | 23 | 30 | 74.20% |
| 24 | Evan McPherson | Cincinnati | 27 | 23 | 78.80% |
| 25 | Spencer Shrader | NY Jets | 5 | 24 | 0.10% |
| 26 | Joey Slye | New England | 15 | 22 | 0.90% |
| 27 | *Nick Folk | Tennessee | 32 | 18 | 1.70% |
| 28 | Cam Little | Jacksonville | 10 | 5 | 2.10% |
| 29 | Graham Gano | NY Giants | 2 | 3 | 0.30% |
| 30 | *Cairo Santos | Chicago | 31 | 27 | 15.00% |
| 31 | *Jason Myers | Seattle | 19 | 28 | 6.10% |
| 32 | *Dustin Hopkins | Cleveland | 22 | 13 | 7.60% |
Kicker POWER RANKINGS
These are the stats that go into these rankings. I’ve added in player specific XP% and FG% this week (typically just used team versions of this). With some kickers being injured and players losing their jobs, I had to find a way to include this. It also balances out the rank a bit more as we don’t want a previous kicker’s stats to dramatically affect the new kickers ranks.
- Fantasy PPG
- Player 50+ Field Goal Makes
- Player FG%
- Player XP%
- Team FG Attempts
- Team XP Attempts
- Team Kicking Points
- Team Points Per Field Goal Attempt
- Team Points Per Game
- RZ TD% (looking for low % to increase FG attempts)
- RZ Attempts
Notes:
Biggest Riser: Spencer Shrader, NYJ (+7)
Biggest Faller: Cam Little, JAX (-8)
Notable Riser: John Parker Romo, MIN L (+5)
| Power Rank | Player | Team | Opportunity Rank | Player Performance Rank | Overall | Roster % | Previous Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Boswell | PIT | 11.9 | 2.8 | 7.3 | 54.30% | 1 |
| 2 | Austin Seibert | WAS | 6.4 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 45.40% | 2 |
| 3 | Jake Moody | San F | 6.6 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 60.50% | 3 |
| 4 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | 12.0 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 90.80% | 4 |
| 5 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | 16.0 | 5.0 | 10.5 | 94.50% | 5 |
| 6 | Brandon McManus | GB | 6.6 | 16.0 | 11.3 | 3.50% | 7 |
| 7 | John Parker Romo | MIN | 11.3 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 1.30% | 12 |
| 8 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | 12.1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 86.40% | 8 |
| 9 | Jake Bates | DET | 15.3 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 50.80% | 14 |
| 10 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | 15.3 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 45.30% | 10 |
| 11 | Tyler Bass | BUF | 10.0 | 17.3 | 13.6 | 60.50% | 15 |
| 12 | Harrison Butker | KC | 11.7 | 16.5 | 14.1 | 92.60% | 11 |
| 13 | Justin Tucker | BAL | 10.1 | 18.8 | 14.4 | 98.60% | 6 |
| 14 | Wil Lutz | DEN | 16.3 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 11.00% | 9 |
| 15 | Chad Ryland | ARI | 19.1 | 10.5 | 14.8 | 5.90% | 13 |
| 16 | Jason Sanders | MIA | 18.0 | 11.8 | 14.9 | 25.00% | 17 |
| 17 | Matt Gay | IND | 16.4 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 12.20% | 16 |
| 18 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | 16.9 | 14.3 | 15.6 | 59.80% | 21 |
| 19 | Blake Grupe | NO | 18.0 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 11.90% | 22 |
| 20 | Daniel Carlson | LV | 23.0 | 10.5 | 16.8 | 4.60% | 19 |
| 21 | Jake Elliott | PHI | 14.0 | 19.8 | 16.9 | 74.20% | 25 |
| 22 | Nick Folk | TEN | 21.9 | 12.0 | 16.9 | 1.70% | 20 |
| 23 | Spencer Shrader | NYJ | 19.0 | 15.5 | 17.3 | 0.10% | 30 |
| 24 | Joshua Karty | LAR | 13.7 | 21.8 | 17.7 | 4.30% | 29 |
| 25 | Joey Slye | NE | 20.7 | 14.8 | 17.7 | 0.90% | 27 |
| 26 | Cam Little | JAC | 22.7 | 13.8 | 18.2 | 2.10% | 18 |
| 27 | Evan McPherson | CIN | 15.9 | 21.3 | 18.6 | 78.80% | 24 |
| 28 | Jason Myers | SEA | 16.7 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 6.10% | 26 |
| 29 | Graham Gano | NYG | 19.0 | 22.3 | 20.6 | 0.30% | 23 |
| 30 | Cairo Santos | CHI | 25.3 | 17.3 | 21.3 | 15.00% | 28 |
| 31 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | 28.3 | 16.3 | 22.3 | 1.90% | 32 |
| 32 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | 22.7 | 22.5 | 22.6 | 7.60% | 31 |