I started a Kicker Ratings system on Reddit and am now going to feature it weekly here as well!
Analysis Notes
Siebert, WAS – He continues to have the best opportunity of any kicker. He is, however, showing signs of his past. He’s 1-3 this season on +50-yard kicks, his only missed kicks this season. In his career, he’s 3-9 on +50 kicks (and 24-31 on 40-49). Good news is the Washington offense moves the ball into makeable territory for him more often than not. As long as the opportunity stays the same, he should be valued as a top 5 kicker ROS.
Boswell, PIT – Ranking 1st in Performance AND Opportunity so far this season. He has a tougher schedule at 19th and is on bye this week. If you have room, add him and set and forget.
Carlson/Moody, SF – Moody could return in week 10 after their bye this week. Whoever is kicking for SF will have tons of opportunity and be a top 10 kicker ROS if they’re making their kicks.
Aubery, DAL – He ranks 3rd in performance and 11th in opportunity. He’s a top 3 kicker, we all know this. His ability to hit +50 field goals make him extremely valuable.
Fairbairn, HOU – I’ve never mentioned him specifically in my notes, but he continues to put up points. He’s scored over 11 points (FantasyPros) in 6 of 8 weeks. He could easily vault to #1 with this continued success.
ROS Rankings
I use the same stats I use for weekly projections to create these ranks. I create an adjustment % based on rankings of the remaining defenses the kicker is facing and do a weighted average to project their ROS Rank.
- Kicker Individual Fantasy Points Per Game
- Opposing Defense Points Allowed Per Game
- Opposing Defense Kicker Fantasy Points Against Per Game
- Opposing Defense Extra Points Attempts Per Game
- Opposing Defense Field Goals Attempts Per Game
- Opposing Defense Red Zone TD % (LOW=more FG attempts)
Notes
Byes: Players with * have had their bye weeks. Good candidates for ‘Set and Forget”. Week 9 byes: Boswell, PIT and Carlson, SF
Injuries: Jake Moody, SF – See “Keep an Eye On” below
Drop: Evan McPherson, CIN. He’s missed 4 field goals and an extra point so far this season. The Bengals opportunity rank is low, and their SOS is 16th, making other readily available choices more appealing.
Add: Brandon McManus, GB. Green Bay has the 4th best opportunity rank so far this season. The Packer SOS is middle of the pack at 15. These two things equal plenty of opportunity for McManus to be a top 10 kicker ROS.
Keep An Eye On: The status of Jake Moody, SF. Anyone kicking for SF is going to be a top 10 kicker due to opportunity. They are on bye in week 9 and he has a chance to return in week 10.
NY Jets: They’re holding kicker tryouts and will likely be replacing Greg Zuerlein this week. The opportunity for Jets hasn’t been great, so I doubt you’re looking to add his replacement. Also, how is he still rostered in 26% of leagues?!
SOS ranking: 1=best, 32=worst
| ROS Rank | Player | Team | SOS | Rost % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Seibert | Washington | 6 | 58.00% |
| 2 | Chris Boswell | Pittsburgh | 14 | 52.80% |
| 3 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | Houston | 4 | 1.00% |
| 4 | Will Reichard* | Minnesota | 5 | 18.20% |
| 5 | Brandon Aubrey* | Dallas | 22 | 94.30% |
| 6 | Anders Carlson | San Francisco | 18 | 5.80% |
| 7 | Cameron Dicker* | LA Chargers | 8 | 55.90% |
| 8 | Wil Lutz | Denver | 9 | 14.60% |
| 9 | Younghoe Koo | Atlanta | 13 | 86.80% |
| 10 | Brandon McManus | Green Bay | 15 | 10.90% |
| 11 | Chase McLaughlin | Tampa Bay | 2 | 49.50% |
| 12 | Justin Tucker | Baltimore | 32 | 98.80% |
| 13 | Greg Joseph | NY Giants | 1 | 1.10% |
| 14 | Jake Bates* | Detroit | 30 | 42.40% |
| 15 | Harrison Butker* | Kansas City | 27 | 91.70% |
| 16 | Blake Grupe | New Orleans | 7 | 5.80% |
| 17 | Chad Ryland | Arizona | 25 | 0.70% |
| 18 | Daniel Carlson | Las Vegas | 19 | 7.80% |
| 19 | Tyler Bass | Buffalo | 17 | 50.00% |
| 20 | Cam Little | Jacksonville | 20 | 2.40% |
| 21 | Jason Myers | Seattle | 26 | 18.00% |
| 22 | Matt Gay | Indianapolis | 23 | 12.00% |
| 23 | Jake Elliott* | Philadelphia | 12 | 64.60% |
| 24 | Evan McPherson | Cincinnati | 16 | 82.10% |
| 25 | Jason Sanders* | Miami | 24 | 15.70% |
| 26 | Eddy Pineiro | Carolina | 3 | 2.00% |
| 27 | Nick Folk* | Tennessee | 29 | 1.90% |
| 28 | Joshua Karty* | LA Rams | 11 | 2.40% |
| 29 | Joey Slye | New England | 21 | 0.90% |
| 30 | Dustin Hopkins | Cleveland | 28 | 10.30% |
| 31 | Greg Zuerlein | NY Jets | 10 | 26.80% |
| 32 | Cairo Santos* | Chicago | 31 | 13.30% |
Week 1-7 POWER RANKINGS
These are the stats the go into these rankings. I’ve added in player specific XP% and FG% this week (typically just used team versions of this). With some kickers being injured and players losing their jobs, I had to find a way to include this. It also balances out the rank a bit more as we don’t want a previous kicker’s stats to dramatically affect the new kickers ranks.
- Fantasy PPG
- Player 50+ Field Goal Makes
- Player FG% (Replaced Team FG%)
- Player XP% (replaced Team XP%)
- Team FG Attempts
- Team XP Attempts
- Team Kicking Points
- Team Points Per Field Goal Attempt
- Team Points Per Game
- RZ TD% (looking for low % to increase FG attempts)
- RZ Attempts
Notes:
Biggest Riser: Jake Elliott, PHI (+6)
Biggest Fallers: Cairo Santos, CHI (-7)
| Power Rank | Player | Team | Opportunity Rank | Player Performance Rank | Overall | Roster % | Previous Week Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Boswell | PIT | 8.57 | 3.00 | 5.79 | 52.80% | 1 |
| 2 | Austin Seibert | WAS | 5.71 | 9.00 | 7.36 | 58.00% | 2 |
| 3 | Will Reichard | MIN | 11.14 | 3.75 | 7.45 | 18.20% | 3 |
| 4 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | 12.86 | 5.00 | 8.93 | 91.00% | 5 |
| 5 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | 13.29 | 5.00 | 9.14 | 94.30% | 4 |
| 6 | Anders Carlson | SF | 5.57 | 14.50 | 10.04 | 18.00% | 10 |
| 7 | Brandon McManus | GB | 9.71 | 11.25 | 10.48 | 10.90% | 12 |
| 8 | Wil Lutz | DEN | 14.43 | 8.00 | 11.21 | 14.60% | 7 |
| 9 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | 14.29 | 9.75 | 12.02 | 86.80% | 6 |
| 10 | Jake Bates | DET | 9.71 | 14.50 | 12.11 | 42.40% | 11 |
| 11 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | 12.71 | 11.50 | 12.11 | 49.50% | 8 |
| 12 | Justin Tucker | BAL | 13.14 | 13.75 | 13.45 | 98.80% | 9 |
| 13 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | 15.14 | 12.25 | 13.70 | 55.90% | 14 |
| 14 | Harrison Butker | KC | 10.14 | 17.50 | 13.82 | 91.70% | 15 |
| 15 | Cam Little | JAC | 16.43 | 11.50 | 13.96 | 2.40% | 16 |
| 16 | Daniel Carlson | LV | 20.43 | 10.25 | 15.34 | 7.80% | 19 |
| 17 | Chad Ryland | ARI | 17.43 | 13.50 | 15.46 | 0.70% | 21 |
| 18 | Nick Folk | TEN | 20.57 | 10.50 | 15.54 | 1.90% | 13 |
| 19 | Jason Myers | SEA | 18.86 | 13.75 | 16.30 | 5.80% | 17 |
| 20 | Matt Gay | IND | 16.71 | 16.00 | 16.36 | 12.00% | 20 |
| 21 | Blake Grupe | NO | 17.29 | 17.25 | 17.27 | 5.80% | 18 |
| 22 | Greg Joseph | NYG | 20.00 | 15.25 | 17.63 | 1.10% | 27 |
| 23 | Jake Elliott | PHI | 15.86 | 19.50 | 17.68 | 64.60% | 29 |
| 24 | Tyler Bass | BUF | 13.71 | 22.50 | 18.11 | 50.00% | 22 |
| 25 | Jason Sanders | MIA | 22.57 | 15.00 | 18.79 | 15.70% | 26 |
| 26 | Joey Slye | NE | 23.86 | 16.25 | 20.05 | 0.90% | 25 |
| 27 | Evan McPherson | CIN | 20.00 | 22.25 | 21.13 | 82.10% | 24 |
| 28 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | 25.71 | 18.75 | 22.23 | 2.00% | 28 |
| 29 | Joshua Karty | LAR | 19.43 | 25.25 | 22.34 | 2.40% | 30 |
| 30 | Cairo Santos | CHI | 24.00 | 20.75 | 22.38 | 13.30% | 23 |
| 31 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | 24.86 | 21.00 | 22.93 | 10.30% | 32 |
| 32 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | 23.14 | 29.75 | 26.45 | 26.80% | 31 |
Sources: FantasyPros and TeamRankings