So the 1.0 version of the model didn’t fare too well last week. As I said, this is something that will take time to improve, and I’m happy to post my record and trial and errors. We will continue to tweak the system to improve it. Our goal is to be winning at least 60% of the time to make profit.
So this week I’ve added in some additional statistics to form different score projections. I’ve included points per play and total plays for both the defense and the offense of both teams. The 2.0 model did really well with over/under, going 10-4-0. It was also positive on spread picks at 7-6-1. I’ll continue to run both until one pulls away and we start having better success with spreads.
Version 1.0
- Over/Under Record: 53.33% (16 Wins – 14 Losses – 0 Pushes)
- Spread Record: 41.38% (11 Wins – 16 Losses – 2 Pushes)
Version 2.0
- Over/Under Record: 71.43% (10 Wins – 4 Losses – 0 Pushes)
- Spread Record: 53.85% (7 Wins – 6 Losses – 1 Pushes)
San Francisco @ Seattle
- Over/Under: 49
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: SF -3.5
- Spread Pick: Seattle
Jacksonville @ Chicago
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Chicago -2
- Spread Pick: Chicago
Washington @ Baltimore
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Baltimore -6.5
- Spread Pick: Washington
Houston @ New England
- Over/Under: 38
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Houston -7
- Spread Pick: New England
Cleveland @ Philadelphia
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: PHI -8.5
- Spread Pick: Cleveland
Arizona @ Green Bay
- Over/Under: 48
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Green Bay -5
- Spread Pick: Arizona
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: TB -3.5
- Spread Pick: New Orleans
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
- Over/Under: 43
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Indy -1
- Spread Pick: Tennessee
LA Chargers @ Denver
- Over/Under: 35.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: LAC -3
- Spread Pick: Denver
Pittsburgh @ Las Vegas
- Over/Under: 36.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Pitt -3
- Spread Pick: Las Vegas
Detroit @ Dallas
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Det -3
- Spread Pick: Dallas
Atlanta @ Carolina
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Over/Under Pick: Under
- Spread: Atlanta -6
- Spread Pick: Carolina
Cincinatti @ NY Giants
- Over/Under: 48
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Cincy -3.5
- Spread Pick: NYG
Buffalo @ NY Jets
- Over/Under: 41
- Over/Under Pick: Over
- Spread: Buff -2
- Spread Pick: Buffalo