Fantasy football is all about numbers. Wide receivers in fantasy football are all about opportunity and what they do with it. We’re going to take a look at the wide receiver analytics to see which of them are going get a bump in 2024 and will outperform their current ADP (all ADPs from FantasyPros).
Find a way to get one of these players late in your drafts as they all have the potential to be weekly starters for you.
Jameson Williams, Lions
- ADP: 115 (WR48)
- My Projection: WR39
- +19% Value
Williams only played 12 games last season. His 17-game pace was 59.5 targets. His points per target was 1.41, only catching 57% of his targets, which is 2.5% lower than league average. The Lions didn’t bring in any additional wide receivers this off season. The only real change is the loss of Josh Reynolds to the Broncos. This opens up 64 targets to be spread amongst the rest of the team. Williams is looking to be the locked in #3 target on this team behind St. Brown and Laporta.
I project him to see 84 targets this year and increase his points per target to 1.64. This will bring him to 137.8 points this year. In 2023 that would put him in the WR38 slot. I expect him to be in the WR3 range this year. With his average ADP of 147 or the WR47, you’re getting great value.
Diontae Johnson, Panthers
- ADP: 87 (WR38)
- My Projection: WR24
- +37% Value
Diontae Johnson is the #1 in Carolina, he has League winner potential. Thielen was the #1 last year commanding 137 targets (25% target share) finishing at WR25 (HPPR). Thielen only scored 1.29 points per target. Johnson’s points per target was 1.46. At that same number of targets, if Johnson were in Thielen’s shoes and scoring 1.46 points per target, he would have finished WR14. I don’t expect Thielen to go away, and they’ll likely be using rookie Xavier Legette in some fashion.
I project Johnson to have at least a 22% target share vaulting him to WR2 territory, scoring north of 176 points this season in HPPR. His ADP is 84 as the WR39. This will be the steal that Thielen was last year.
Josh Palmer, Chargers
- ADP: 150 (WR55)
- My Projection: WR36
- +35% Value
Josh Palmer is stepping into a new role as the X receiver for the new look Chargers in 2024. His 1.46 points per target in 2023 are notable, but targets just weren’t available with Ekeler, Everett, and Allen ahead of him (294 targets, all gone). Ladd McConkey figures to eat up the middle of the field targets, keeping Palmer to the outside where he averaged over 15 yards per reception last year. With 294 targets up for grabs, an 18% target share isn’t unreasonable.
The offense will likely pass less this year under Harbaugh, but with 18% target share, he should still see 103 targets and will score 151 points (HPPR). That will put him as a low end WR3. He’s currently drafted at 134 or the WR55, giving him a +19 WR Draft Value.
Khalil Shakir, Bills
- ADP: 133 (WR51)
- My Projection: WR 34
- +33% Value
241 targets are up for grabs in Buffalo with the exit of Diggs and Davis. about 60% of that should go to the wide receivers. They used a draft pick on Keon Coleman and brought in Curtis Samuel (1.28 pts/tgt) from the Commanders. My rookie WR projections have Coleman outside of the top 10. Shakir only received 45 targets in 2023, but with a 2.06 points per target he still finished as WR60. An ADP of 52 is low based on his efficiency. I see him doubling his target share this year, which will likely drop his points per target to the 1.60 range.
Given the opportunity and his efficiency, I project Shakir to have an 18% target share in a high-powered offense. He will finish at 160 points (HPPR) and will finish WR34.