There’s a belief that Rounds 4-7 in the fantasy draft are a “Dead Zone” for running backs. While many in the community think these rounds are bad value for RBs, that’s not the case. Last season, players like Rachaad White (RB7), James Cook (RB11), and David Montgomery (RB12) all had ADPs in the “Dead Zone.” Players in the later rounds should be drafted for potential, not for consistency. Let’s examine a few of the running backs going in these rounds and see if they’re worth the pick.
1. D’Andre Swift, Bears
- ADP: 59 (RB21)
- Potential: RB24
On his third team in three seasons, Swift proved he can handle a workload for the Eagles last season, seeing 278 opportunities. His points per opportunity are about league average at 0.65, so his playing time will be key. He steps into an offense in flux with a running back room that leaves much to be desired. This Bears team looks to be pass-first, and Swift fits in well. Expect him to finish close to his ADP as the 20th back off the board, but don’t expect him to light up the room.
2. David Montgomery, Lions
- ADP: 59 (RB20)
- Potential: RB14 – Diamond
Montgomery is a diamond in the RB Dead Zone. With 0.78 points per opportunity, he’s a great back when he gets touches. Monty and Gibbs nearly split opportunities last season, with Monty having 243 and Gibbs 253. When both were active, Monty was the early down back and the goal-line option. With the Lions’ offensive success last season, the parity should continue, and he’s poised for a season as a high-end RB2 while being drafted at the low-end RB2 price.
3. Zamir White, Raiders
- ADP: 59 (RB22)
- Potential: RB32
Zamir steps into the Josh Jacobs role on a team that’s going to run the ball, per head coach Antonio Pierce. He should see near 300 opportunities this season, giving him plenty of chances to produce. Last season, his points per opportunity was below the league average at only 0.54, mostly due to a lack of touchdowns and opportunities at the goal line. In the last three weeks of 2023, he proved he could carry the load, averaging 109 yards per game and 12.4 fantasy points. Even with the opportunity, expect him to be underwhelming this season and not worth the ADP.
4. Raheem Mostert, Dolphins
- ADP: 59 (RB25)
- Potential: RB9 – Diamond
At 31 years old and not much to show for his career, Mostert stepped up and produced RB1 numbers in 2023. Last season, he accumulated 241 opportunities (targets + carries) and capitalized, scoring 1.06 points per opportunity. The emergence of Achane and the unknown usage of rookie Jaylen Wright have plummeted his stock. Achane reminds me of Tony Pollard, more effective in bursts. A two-headed monster works, especially when both running backs are top 3 per opportunity in 2023. If Mostert regresses down to 1 point per opportunity and sees 200 instead of 240, he will still finish as an RB1 this season with 200 points.
5. James Conner, Cardinals
- ADP: 59 (RB18)
- Potential: RB17
James Conner has been in this range for the past few years, and it fits. He’s very efficient per opportunity at 0.78. The trouble with Conner is availability, having missed games in each of the last few seasons. He should still see the majority of the work early in the season with Trey Benson working in. If/when Conner gets hurt this year, he could lose time and opportunities. Due to this, he’s a pass in the Dead Zone.
6. Najee Harris (ADP 69) / Jaylen Warren, Steelers
- ADP: Najee 69 (RB24) / Warren 82 (RB32)
- Potential: Najee RB22 / Warren RB23
Grouping these two together given their split role. With Arthur Smith taking over play-calling duties, we could see a similar split that Bijan and Allgeier had in Atlanta in 2024. While fantasy managers won’t like it, the Steelers’ offense is better off utilizing both. Warren is better per opportunity at 0.74 to Harris’ 0.62. They should score similarly this year, so you have to go with upside. Draft Warren at his ADP, leave Najee to other owners.
7. Aaron Jones, Vikings
- ADP: 59 (RB19)
- Potential: RB25
Aaron Jones is an RB2 when healthy due to opportunities. He’s average at 0.65 points per opportunity. He should see about 250 opportunities this season, with potential for more if he plays every game. With Ty Chandler behind him on the depth chart, there isn’t much competition for touches. The risk of him getting hurt and a potential sputtering Vikings offense puts him in the don’t draft category.
8. Zak Moss, Bengals
- ADP: 59 (RB27)
- Potential: RB27
Moss showed his talent last season stepping in for an injured Jonathan Taylor showing above average points per opportunity at 0.71. Everyone expects Chase Brown to take over for Moss this season. In reality, this will work out similarly to the split in Pittsburgh, with Moss seeing more touches than Brown and Brown being more efficient. This limits Moss’s upside and he should simply perform to his ADP with not enough upside to draft in the Dead Zone.
The dead zone is the start of opportunities to find players who could return league winning potential. The goal is to find players who are being undervalued and draft them at around their ADPs to realize the value. Just last year there were 3 running backs taken in these rounds that returned RB1 value. It’s not a “Dead Zone”, it’s an “Opportunity Zone.” Don’t be afraid to draft the diamonds in these rounds.